With November 1 just days away, the threat of a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports—announced by the Trump administration earlier this month—had been looming large[1]. This unprecedented tariff hike was set to take effect on November 1 and rattled businesses and markets alike[2]. The move was intended as retaliation for Beijing’s export curbs on rare earth metals, and it signaled a potential return to trade war escalation not seen since the height of U.S.-China tariff battles in 2018-2019[3]. However, fast-moving diplomatic developments in the past week have significantly changed the outlook, providing a possible off-ramp before the deadline.
Legal Implementation Still Unclear: Despite the fiery rhetoric, no formal legal notice or regulation has been issued to implement the threatened 100% tariffs so far. The tariff threat appears to have been used primarily as a negotiating lever. In practice, a broad duty hike of this scale would typically require Section 301 trade action or a similar legal mechanism. The absence of any published details has left companies in limbo about which products would be affected and how quickly customs might enforce such tariffs. This uncertainty underscores that the situation is fluid – and now it seems the legal trigger may never need to be pulled if a deal holds.
U.S.-China Talks Yield “Preliminary Consensus”: High-level talks between U.S. and Chinese officials in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia this past weekend have produced a tentative framework to defuse the standoff. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and top negotiator Li Chenggang for a fifth round of in-person discussions[4]. According to Bessent, these discussions “eliminated the threat” of the 100% tariffs slated for November 1[5]. In return, China is expected to delay its new rare earth export licensing regime by one year – a key concession given that China’s tight hold on rare earth materials was a central issue in this dispute[5]. On the Chinese side, Li Chenggang struck a cautious but positive tone, confirming that both sides reached a “preliminary consensus” pending internal approval procedures[6]. He noted that talks involved intense consultations and “constructive exchanges in exploring solutions” to address each side’s core concerns[7]. In short, both Washington and Beijing appear to be stepping back from the brink, at least for now.
Tariff Truce Likely Extended: The recent progress also means that the existing tariff truce, which was set to expire in early November, will likely be prolonged. Bessent indicated that the current pause on new tariffs will be extended beyond its November 10 end date as part of the framework deal[8]. This extension buys time for both sides to formalize an agreement and for businesses to avoid a whiplash change in tariff rates. Indeed, President Trump sounded an optimistic note after the Malaysia meetings, telling reporters, “I think we’re going to have a deal with China.”[9] All eyes are now on a potential Trump-Xi meeting on the sidelines of this week’s APEC summit in South Korea, where the two leaders are expected to review and possibly sign off on the interim accord[10]. The White House has announced plans for such a meeting, though Beijing has yet to officially confirm it[11]. If the summit between the presidents proceeds and solidifies the current understanding, the feared Nov. 1 tariff escalation will be averted, marking a significant de-escalation in tensions.
Diplomatic Engagements Ahead of APEC Summit: In the days following the Malaysia talks, on Monday October 27, 2025, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, expressing hope that both sides can meet halfway to “prepare for high-level interactions”[12] The discussion, which reaffirmed the value of the personal relationship between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, underscored a renewed effort to stabilize relations ahead of their expected meeting on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in South Korea later this week. At the same time, new points of tension have emerged, including U.S. port fees on Chinese vessels and Beijing’s expanded controls on rare earth exports, signaling that while both countries are pursuing a near-term trade understanding, the broader economic friction remains unresolved.
Outlook: While these developments are a welcome reprieve from an immediate tariff hike, the situation remains dynamic. Both governments have signaled willingness to compromise – with the U.S. pausing its tariff threat and China postponing its tech-metal export restrictions – but a lasting resolution is not guaranteed until a final deal is signed. Businesses should stay prepared for rapid changes, as the fragility of U.S.-China talks means conditions could shift again with little notice. For now, the countdown to November 1 continues on a far more hopeful note than just a week ago, as the prospect of a full-blown trade war escalation appears to be on hold[5].
We will continue to monitor the implementation of these trade measures. If you have any questions about how the evolving U.S.–China trade developments may impact your business, please feel free to contact DeHeng (New York) Law Offices for guidance.
[1] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] US, China talks sketch out rare earths, tariff pause for Trump and Xi to consider | Reuters
[2] US retailers brace for impact as Trump's 100% China tariffs loom | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-retailers-brace-impact-trumps-100-china-tariffs-loom-2025-10-13/ [1] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [13] US, China talks sketch out rare earths, tariff pause for Trump and Xi to consider | Reuters
[2] US retailers brace for impact as Trump's 100% China tariffs loom | Reuters
[12] China's foreign minister speaks with Rubio ahead of Trump-Xi meeting | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-foreign-minister-speaks-with-us-rubio-by-phone-xinhua-reports-2025-10-27/
